Many Democrats are ready to face the reality that winning the South is no certain path to success. There is quiet talk about not pouring resources into the South, of trying to hold the 20 states that Vice President Al Gore won in 2000 - none south of Maryland - and concentrate on picking up some of the states in the Southwest and the swing states they lost by a whisker.
"Democrats don't need to win the South," said David Bositis, political analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which studies African American voting trends. Even if the Democrats have a chance, it probably would take too much time and money, and drain resources better spent elsewhere.
Going to the Southwest makes enormous sense, said Phoenix-based pollster Earl de Berge. In Arizona, which has 10 electoral votes, making it the region's biggest prize, "Democrats have come to the realization they can win," he said.
Led by Janet Napolitano, an energetic governor and a possible vice presidential choice, the state has seen an influx of people from some Democratic strongholds, particularly California. Add New Mexico - which Gore won by 0.6 percent in 2000 - with its five electoral votes to the mix, and perhaps Colorado, where Bush won with 51 percent in 2000, and Nevada, where heavy union influence puts its five electoral votes in play, and that could make more sense than the South.
What keeps some Democrats improbably focused on the South involves culture and race, two factors that are not easily overlooked.
The South began to swing Republican in the mid-1960s, after a coalition of Republicans and largely non-Southern Democrats led the fight for landmark civil rights legislation. Today, the equation for Democratic victory in most of those states is simple: They need roughly one-third to 40 percent of the white vote, since they can count on about 90 percent of the black vote.
In Louisiana, as in other states, there's little question that blacks will turn out in heavy numbers to vote. They are not keen on Bush, and they still feel the scars of the disputed Florida result of 2000.
But that's still not likely to be enough to give the state's nine electoral votes to a Democrat, said John Maginnis, an activist based in Lake Charles, La.
"You have to remember, most Democrats in Louisiana would pass for Republicans in Connecticut," he said. "They're pro-life, pro-gun and a lot closer to Bush on most issues."
| South by Southwest? No, it's more like "'bye South, hello Southwest" in David Lightman's Hartford Courant article "Party may be over in South"
posted in articles on February 10, 2004 6:12 AM | t (0)
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